Margin erosion on Alpine Insulated Bottle 32oz
01what happened
Cascade Drinkware Co. raised the unit cost from $22 to $29, but Alpine Insulated Bottle 32oz still sells at $49. The business is absorbing the full increase: about $182 a month at the current sales pace, and gross margin has fallen from 55.1% to 40.8%. 3 competing retailers currently list comparable products between $59 and $64, so a move to $55 keeps Alpine Insulated Bottle 32oz below the market median of $62.
// rules-based explanation; AI narrative unavailable
02the fix you approved
−price $49
+price $55(+12.2%)
$49→$55
Still priced below every competitor LedgerLens checked.
03evidence
Supplier cost
$22 → $29
+31.8%
Retail price
$49 → $49
No change
Gross margin
55.1% → 40.8%
-14.3 pts
Units sold, last 90 days
78
26 per month
Your price vs market median
$49 → $62
21.0% below median
04market evidence · apify
Demo dataset, not live market data05calculations
| 01 | Historical gross margin | ($49 − $22) / $49 | 55.1% |
| 02 | Current gross margin | ($49 − $29) / $49 | 40.8% |
| 03 | Margin compression | 40.8% − 55.1% | -14.3 pts |
| 04 | Cost absorbed per month | $7 × 26 units/month | $182 |
| 05 | Cost absorbed per year | $182 × 12 (unrounded) | $2,184 |
| 06 | Competitor median | median($59, $62, $64) | $62 |
| 07 | Gap to median | ($62 − $49) / $62 | 21.0% below |
| 08 | Conservative price | min($62 × 0.90, $49 × 1.15), rounded down to a whole dollar | $55 |
| 09 | Monthly upside | $6 × 26 units/month (trailing 90-day velocity) | $156 |
| 10 | Annual upside | $156 × 12 (unrounded) | $1,872 |
| 11 | Recoverable per year | min(annual upside, annual absorbed cost) | $1,872 |
// integer cents, deterministic engine
06uncertainty and missing evidence
- ?Assumes sales volume holds at the historical pace after a price change; demand elasticity is not measured.
- ?Competitor products are comparable but not identical.
07agent.log
+ show 15 steps− hide steps
- 09:40:54ledger loaded: 202 transactions, 985 orders, 18 products
- 09:40:54202 transactions analyzed; 1 likely duplicate payment
- 09:40:549 recurring charges found; 1 merit review
- 09:40:5418 products analyzed; 1 with margin compression
- 09:40:54selected 3 products for market research
- 09:40:55loading demo dataset for 8 competitor listings
- 09:40:55collected 8 competitor prices (demo dataset)
- 09:40:552 pricing opportunities; 1 corroborate margin erosion
- 09:40:554 of 4 findings supported by evidence
- 09:40:55duplicate payment to summit packaging supply: $1,058 one-time
- 09:40:55margin erosion on alpine insulated bottle 32oz: $1,872 a year
- 09:40:55pricing opportunity on trail daypack 24l: $756 a year
- 09:40:55relay inbox subscription price increase: $600 a year
- 09:40:55$4,286 in potential annual profit recovery
- 09:40:564 recommendations ready for review